The Red Sea Fork Bomb: Why Polymarket's 45% Probability Is the Real Vulnerability
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Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Block reward halving event
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
92 million ARB released
Team and early investor shares released
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Bitcoin Season