#fed

The number sits in the prediction market like a beacon in fog: 58%. That is t...

I have spent the better part of a decade translating the arcane mechanics of...

The last time the 10-year Treasury yield sat at these levels, we were all...

Emerging-market equities and currencies slid in unison this week. The trigger...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just told us something it didn't say out loud....

The Ninth Circuit's ruling that Nevada can enforce its gambling laws against...

The truth is, the bond market doesn't care about your portfolio. It doesn't...

The 10-year Treasury yield is pinned at levels that would have given the 2019...

History verifies what speculation cannot. On May 12, 2026, Cleveland Fed...

The Jackson Hole podium has a way of minting ghosts. Every August, central...

The number was 203,000. The market expected 208,000. A 5,000 difference. A 2....

The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near multi-decade highs. Gold is setti...

There is a peculiar silence that follows a number. Not the silence of a room...

The logs don't lie, but they rarely tell the whole story. On August 26, the...

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently issued a stark warning:...

The tape closed flat on August 27th. Dow -0.21%. Nasdaq -0.08%. S&P 500 -0.02...

The dollar index rose 0.3% on August 26. That is the fact. The context is wha...

Tracing the genesis block of narrative value. That's what I found myself doin...

Spot gold just fell below $4,600 per ounce, a 1.30% intraday drop that has th...

The market narrative is simple: central banks are done hiking, and the next...

The S&P 500 sits 60% above its post-war trend line. Earnings are 60% above...

August 26, 2019. The Federal Reserve released the discount rate meeting...

Consensus is broken. On August 26, 2019, the Federal Reserve released the...

The market has a dangerous habit of hearing what it wants to hear. This week,...

Trust is a bug. Especially when it comes to macro data narratives. The Chicag...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed -0.08 for July. The market...

The bond market is a machine for pricing trust. And right now, the machine is...

Gold just ended its longest correction in two years, and the market is treati...

The Hook: A Contradiction in the Market's Most Important Trade On May 12, 202...

WE DIDN’T see it coming. Not the 40 trillion debt milestone—that was...

The 10-year Treasury yield is climbing, and the first instinct across crypto...

The 10-year Treasury yield just hit levels we haven't seen in over a decade....

Hook: A Metric Anomaly Over the past 72 hours, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yiel...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has published research that should...

Tracing the immutable breath of the global financial system, one finds a...

Verification precedes valuation; always. Hook: The S&P 500 is sitting at 7,67...

The anchor dropped on August 23rd. Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl publ

The 19.9% surge in Bitcoin within 24 hours—accompanied by $1.08 billion in...

The Mexican peso hit a fresh record against the dollar. The Brazilian real is...

Silence in the slasher was the first warning sign. In crypto markets, the fir...

12:45 PM GMT — BREAKING: Citigroup's FX desk just flipped structurally bearis...

The data shows a number. $225 million. That is the overnight reverse repo...

Tokyo's policy trap is tightening. The July inflation data landed at 1.9%...

Hook Housing affordability does not improve merely because inflation slows. I...

Bitcoin is holding $28,000 while the Fed’s most valuable asset—its...

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points last Wednesday. The macro...

At block 842,000, the Bitcoin network processed a transaction of 1,000 BTC fr...

The July 2024 FOMC minutes revealed a fracture: three officials voted to rais...

Hook The Federal Reserve’s latest policy record contains a contradiction that...

The dollar index just broke 99 for the first time since June. Down 0.65% in a...